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Financial data unscrambled the Central Bank in Feburary: Monetary credit from cl
From;    Author:Stand originally
The Central Bank announces yesterday finance ran data to show Feburary, the money that month and credit are added fast drop significantly than appearing January. Analytic personage thinks, showing the result gradually from tight monetary policy. Because be enslaved to be enslaved to is tall still the inflationary level of look forward to, monetary credit is loosened hard from close strength first half of the year.
Credit compared to the same period remarkable add less
Data shows, the RMB increased loan newly in Feburary 243.4 billion yuan, add 170.4 billion yuan less compared to the same period; Loan remaining sum is added compared to the same period fast for 15.73% , than last year end is mixed dropped respectively in January 0.37 with 1.01 percent.
Credit is added that month fast drop relatively apparent. The bank that start line of business (34.1, - 0.98, - 2.79% , ) macroscopical analyst Lu Zheng appoint think, 1-2 month increases loan newly 1.05 trillion yuan, prep according to to increase credit newly first quarter 1.27 trillion yuan target, credit control was in March anticipating is not tickler inside the target. He expresses, the cause of credit adjusting control first quarter is very probable come true.
Increase loan newly this year in January 803.6 billion yuan, achieve the history new tall, the market begins to worry about the adjusting control target this year whether implementation. The data Feburary alleviated this is anxious. Analytic personage thinks, the occurrence of this one result, beyond the credit limit government that began in October from last year besides profit from Central Bank, the Central Bank is increased withdraw surplus money from circulation strength also has very big effect.
The money Feburary is added fast also drop apparently than January. Among them M1 is added fast fell first since June last year oneself to 20% the following, with M2 " price scissors " close apparently narrow, for 1.72 percent, achieve since January 2007 new low. Lu Zheng appoint express, the money is added fast especially M1 is added fast dropping is good appearance on the trend, because look from statistical data, the CPI correlation of M1 and lag is spent more apparent, monetary supply is added fast if drop continuously, the pressure that is helpful for reducing inflation.
Notable is, foreign currency loan was added compared to the same period in Feburary fast for 53.31% , continued the since rapid growth trend end last year, analytic personage anticipates the measure that can limitative foreign currency borrows money to come on stage.
In addition, RMB deposit added 804.5 billion yuan more compared to the same period in Feburary, growth is more. Analytic personage thinks, have the factor that the Spring Festival shifts to an earlier date than last year among them, but more important because stock market expression is like person meaning very much,be afraid is, the part invests capital circumfluence bank.
Constrictive policy is bad loose
Although financial data shows the result of a series of constrictive measure before this, but analytic personage thinks, in Feburary CPI goes up achieve 12 years of 8.7% new below high case, although have the short-term factor such as snow calamity, Spring Festival among them, but predict inflationary level runs perch first half of the year, this decided from what tighten at present monetary policy is loosened hard.
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